久久亚洲国产成人影院-久久亚洲国产的中文-久久亚洲国产高清-久久亚洲国产精品-亚洲图片偷拍自拍-亚洲图色视频

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Not much for Russia to gain from trade war

By Oleg Remyga | China Daily | Updated: 2019-08-12 07:10
Share
Share - WeChat
[Photo/IC]

After the US leader threatened Washington would impose 10 percent additional tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods from Sept 1, some experts were prompted to ask whether the US-instigated trade war with China will influence Russian-Chinese economic cooperation.

Some media commentators in Russia and a few other countries have said Russia could benefit from the Sino-US trade war, as it could replace, to some extent, the United States in the Chinese market. But is there any basis for such hopeful views?

If we look at the situation from a purely economic point of view, the Sino-US trade war will have no direct influence on Russia-China economic cooperation. But given that soybean and pork exports from Russia to China increased significantly, several experts believe that the Sino-US trade war has created big opportunities for Russian companies.

Statistics, though, tell a different story. In 2017-18, Russia exported about 0.9 million tons of soybean to China (2.5 times more than in 2016-17), which accounted for about 25 percent of the total soybean produced in Russia. But since the annual consumption of soybean in China is about 100 million tons, even if Russia were to export all the soybean it produces to China, it would fulfill only 4 percent of China's annual soybean demand.

On the other hand, under normal conditions, China used to import on average 30 million tons of soybean from the US every year. Which means Russia cannot replace the US as a soybean exporter to China.

The same trend is evident in pork and other goods. The Russian economy's capacity is rather limited, and it cannot replace the US as an exporter of a number of foodstuffs to China.

The good news for Russian companies is that the Sino-US trade war will make the Chinese authorities act faster and be more flexible. A key factor for Russia-China economic cooperation not developing as fast as it should is that many Russian goods cannot enter the Chinese market due to legal and sanitary regulations. Since China now needs to shift from US companies and diversify its suppliers network, the decision-making process is expected to become faster, which will give Russian companies a good chance to get their small but vital share in China's commodities and industrial equipment (especially medical) markets.

But the fact is, Sino-Russian negotiations on regulatory requirements started long before the US imposes punitive tariffs on Chinese goods, and the Sino-US trade war is an indirect factor that expedited the process.

Another indirect influence of the Sino-US trade war on the China-Russia negotiations is related to payments in Chinese and Russian currencies. Although negotiations on the issue were going on for a long time, the Sino-US trade war helped bring it to a swift conclusion with a formal agreement being inked two months ago. And according to the Russian Central Bank, payments in US dollars between Russia and China dropped from 75.8 percent in 2018 to 54 percent in the first half of this year, and payments in yuans and rubles rose from 16.9 percent in 2018 to 22.5 percent in the first half.

But what about the impact of the Sino-US trade war on Chinese companies doing business in Russia? Chinese companies will try to diversify their presence in different markets, and make greater efforts to sell more of their products in the Russian market. We can debate about the trend of Russia's economy but the fact is, it is still a big market with 140 million consumers. It cannot substitute the US market, though, as their scales are simply incomparable.

An apt example of a Chinese high-tech company expanding business in Russia is Huawei. The Chinese high-tech giant's smartphones hold the largest share in the Russian market after overtaking Samsung and Apple last year. This seems a success spiked by the current trade war. But since the US administration has banned Huawei from installing the Android operation system in their new smartphones, Russian consumers who have got used to Android will have to shift to another platform, and Huawei sales risk falling in the country.

Which once again proves we are living in a very interconnected world and a war, be it a trade war or military war, will disrupt the global supply chains, leading to a huge revenue loss. There are no winners in a trade war. And since the global economy is not in a good shape, trade wars are good news for none. According to Bloomberg, if the Sino-US trade war continues till 2021, it will shave 0.5 percent off the global GDP. In such a situation Russia cannot be a winner. Instead, overall, it could be among the losers despite making some tactical gains.

The author is professor of EMBA for Eurasia program at SKOLKOVO Business School, Moscow.

The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
主站蜘蛛池模板: 亚洲国产一区在线 | 欧美视频xxxxx | 露脸 在线 国产 眼镜 | 成年片免费网址网站 | 欧美特黄视频在线观看 | 日韩精品欧美激情国产一区 | 伊人色综合久久天天人手人停 | 人久热欧美在线观看量量 | 亚洲国产福利精品一区二区 | 全黄性高视频 | 日韩日韩日韩手机看片自拍 | 日日撸夜夜操 | 免费看成人片 | 日本欧美国产精品 | 精品欧美一区二区精品久久 | 美女擦逼 | 九九综合视频 | 失禁h啪肉尿出来高h男男 | 欧美一级欧美三级 | 中国女警察一级毛片视频 | 亚洲日本欧美产综合在线 | 男女男精品视频网站在线观看 | 日本一区二区三区高清福利视频 | 超矿碰人人超人人看 | 国产精品亚洲片在线va | 毛片在线看免费 | 国产成人亚洲毛片 | 天天爱天天做天天爽天天躁 | 91亚洲精品久久91综合 | 97capcom超频在线 | 精品国产欧美一区二区三区成人 | 美女网站18 | 久久高清一级毛片 | 自拍偷拍视频在线观看 | 国产永久在线观看 | 日本免费一二区视频 | 一级欧美激情毛片 | 亚洲图片 自拍偷拍 | 99久久综合精品国产 | 一级毛片不卡免费看老司机 | 亚洲国产成人va在线观看网址 |