久久亚洲国产成人影院-久久亚洲国产的中文-久久亚洲国产高清-久久亚洲国产精品-亚洲图片偷拍自拍-亚洲图色视频

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Business
Home / Business / Policies

Countries should learn from the hard choices of China

By David Blair | China Daily | Updated: 2020-04-27 10:23
Share
Share - WeChat
The lockdown in Yunmeng county, Xiaogan in Hubei province during the novel coronavirus outbreak on March 12, 2020. [Photo/Sipa]

The quarantining of Wuhan, capital of Hubei province, for 76 days from Jan 23, and China's quick decision to close down much of the national economy in response to the novel coronavirus outbreak were unprecedented. Now the nation has made progress in the equally unprecedented task of resuscitating the economy after the epidemic-driven shutdown. Just as other countries learned from China's health and epidemic prevention and control measures, they should be cooperating with China and learning from its experiences re-opening the economy.

The success of the quarantine strategy in limiting the number of deaths from the virus set the model that almost all other countries have followed. It is unlikely that Western countries would have thought about the kinds of quarantines and economic closures they are now implementing if they had not seen the Chinese precedent.

Bringing the COVID-19 pandemic under control has been expensive for the economy. Industrial output fell 13.5 percent in the first two months of this year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The urban unemployment rate rose to 6.2 percent in February, the NBS said. Retail sales plummeted 20.5 percent year-on-year in January and February and fixed asset investment fell 24.5 percent. This was hard, but necessary.

In the US, 17 million new workers had claimed unemployment benefits by mid-March and experts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect the unemployment rate to reach 13 percent by June. Other experts estimate that unemployment could reach 20 percent to 30 percent. Goldman Sachs is predicting a 5-percent fall in US GDP in the second quarter.

German economists surveyed by Reuters estimate that their country's economy will shrink 9.8 percent in the second quarter and decline a total of 4.2 percent for the year. And, the International Monetary Fund is now predicting that 170 countries will have negative economic growth this year.

National leaders have to make the difficult tradeoffs between fighting the damage done by the virus and the damage done by shutting down their respective economies. Economics is all about tradeoffs, but no one has any real experience or reliable models to guide decisions about how to come out of economic shutdowns.

China is several months ahead of other countries in dealing with the virus, so its model of economic resuscitation after the peak of the virus will also serve as a model as other countries come out of their quarantines.

On Feb 23, near the height of the epidemic, President Xi Jinping said the impact of the epidemic on China's economic and social development will be temporary and generally manageable. It is important to view China's development in a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term perspective, and to strengthen and firm up confidence. In general, the fundamentals of China's long-term sound economic growth remain unchanged, he said.

And US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated his concerns about keeping large parts of the economy shut down. On March 23, he tweeted: "We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself." And, he announced that he would appoint a bipartisan council of business and medical experts to determine when parts of the US economy will be able to reopen.

China has now turned to the task of resuscitating its economy and is recovering steadily. According to the NBS, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index has increased into positive growth, rising from 35.7 in February to 52 in March. The non-manufacturing index rose from 29.6 to 52.3 in the same period.

As of late March, 98.6 percent of the large-scale businesses in China had resumed operations with 89.9 percent of their employees returning to work. Over 76 percent of small and medium enterprises had resumed operations, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

The recovery of China's export sector depends, of course, on the demand from export markets, which have dropped dramatically in the last month. Complete recovery will depend on international cooperation in macroeconomic stimulus and on restoring international supply chains.

In many industries, large companies have the resources to bounce back quickly. For example, large State-owned enterprises in Hubei province are building infrastructure-roads, bridges, rail lines, and so forth. But, in any country, it's also much harder to support the coordination of small business recovery than that of large businesses.

In a March 10 State Council Executive Meeting, Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need for coordinating the opening up of big businesses and small businesses, and said that the nation is on a path of integrated development among large, medium and small enterprises.

The reason for insufficient production is the mismatch of the work resumption ratios between large firms and medium and small enterprises, he said.

He also urged government departments to study the construction of a financing platform for core businesses in industrial chains to aid relevant SMEs in distress and called for better execution with expedited loan issuance to ensure supplies for epidemic control and spring farming. He underlined support for production in international supply chains, labor-intensive industries, and micro-, small-and medium-sized enterprises.

China has prioritized protecting SMEs, workers, and poor people. On the other hand, the US bailouts, quantitative easing and stimulus packages after the 2008-9 Global Financial Crisis largely went to supporting large monopolistic companies and made income inequality even worse. As an American, I hope the US gets its priorities right so this does not happen again.

The impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy should not be overlooked, but, in any case, we should make all-out efforts to stabilize employment, Li said, adding that all the departments concerned should take employment stability as their top priority when considering their tasks for this year.

As long as employment remains stable this year, whether economic growth is lower or higher is less important, he said.

China has also made a priority of not allowing the virus to delay the goal of eliminating extreme poverty by the end of the year. The central government has allocated 113 billion yuan ($15.9 billion) and other levels of government have allocated 200 billion yuan for poverty relief this year. Special mechanisms have been set up to assist poor regions and migrants from poor households.

China's major steps in reviving the economy include the following: 1) Large monetary stimulus has been used, but with emphasis on limiting the increase in private or public debts. 2) Fiscal stimulus has focused on infrastructure programs that can get people back to work. 3) SMEs have been given special access to loans and their taxes have been cut. 4) Local officials have been charged with opening up businesses if and only if their region has contained the virus. The Chinese government's fine-grained information about local economies allows it to make such localized decisions, while many Western countries will have to use blunter macroeconomic policies. 5) Supply chains are being restored as factories coordinate restoring production. 6) China will continue its long-term plans pushing more market-oriented reforms and international opening up. And 7), as noted above, policies have prioritized restoring jobs and protecting poor people.

Beth Ann Bovino, chief US economist at S&P Global Ratings, told the online US news site The Hill: "How (post-lockdown Wuhan) fares will likely offer lessons for the pandemic's timeline and what economic recoveries will look like elsewhere, including in the United States. Watching their experience could have some lessons for us."

Countries need to learn from each other and work together to continue to fight the virus and to achieve the difficult goal of resuscitating their economies.

Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
CLOSE
 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产成人一区二区三区在线播放 | 精品一区二区三区中文字幕 | a级男女性高爱潮高清试 | 一级毛片免费播放视频 | 成熟性xxxxx| 七七国产福利在线二区 | 免费又黄又爽视频 | 国产精品亚洲午夜不卡 | 国产一级做a爰片久久毛片 国产一级做a爰片久久毛片99 | 欧美视频在线一区二区三区 | 国产精品色内内在线播放 | 欧洲欧美成人免费大片 | 爽爽视频在线观看 | 国产高清在线 | 亚洲欧美日韩另类在线 | 国产一区成人 | 性欧美巨大 | 欧美日韩一级二级三级 | 亚洲国产毛片 | 日本高清免费视频www | 国产小视频在线高清播放 | 污到下面流水的视频 | 国产专区第一页 | 国产欧美一区二区久久 | 国产精品一一在线观看 | 99精品在线看| 欧美全免费aaaaaa特黄在线 | 毛片基地看看成人免费 | 久久er热这里只有精品免费 | 国产一级毛片在线 | 亚洲国产一区在线 | 国产成人精品综合久久久 | 国产一级做a爰片久久毛片男 | 黑色丝袜美美女被躁视频 | 亚洲日本一区二区三区 | 9久久99久久久精品齐齐综合色圆 | 一级特黄色毛片免费看 | 国产真实孩交 | 亚洲综合图片人成综合网 | 国产精品亚洲一区在线播放 | 亚洲日本久久一区二区va |