www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
China
Home / China / Innovation

Chinese scientists say 2% probability of asteroid hitting Earth

By Yan Dongjie | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2025-02-19 20:42
Share
Share - WeChat
Near-Earth Object Telescope at Purple Mountain Observatory captures 2024YR4 on Jan 7, 2025. The small bright spot pointed to by the red arrow is the asteroid. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn]

Chinese scientists have been continuously observing an asteroid that may collide with Earth in 2032 since early January, calculating its probability of impact to be around 2 percent.

"As observational data accumulates, the calculations of its orbit will become more accurate, and the probability of it impacting Earth will also change. So the public need not panic and should await further results from astronomers.," said Zhao Haibin, director and researcher of the Department of Planetary Science and Deep Space Exploration at the Purple Mountain Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has an estimated diameter between 40 and 90 meters, roughly the size of a large building. It was discovered on December 27 by an Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope located in Chile, scientists said.

Previously, NASA's Near-Earth Object monitoring system Sentry calculated the probability of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth at 2.1 percent, while the European Space Agency's (ESA) Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre calculated the probability at 2.02 percent.

"The orbit of an asteroid is primarily calculated through optical observations. Asteroids shine by reflecting sunlight, and observing them with telescopes, along with the surrounding stars in their field of view, helps us determine their coordinates in the celestial sphere. This, in turn, allows us to calculate their orbits," Zhao said.

The orbit of this asteroid has a relatively high eccentricity, meaning its path is elliptical. It passes near Earth's orbit about every four years. The period from the end of last year to the beginning of this year was a good observation window, and there will be another favorable observation window in 2028, he said.

Experts studying asteroids at the CAS indicate that although our current technology makes it difficult to directly intercept an asteroid, but "we can alter its trajectory by a few millimeters per second".

However, there are several ways to prevent such near-Earth asteroids from impacting Earth, such as launching rockets to push it off its original path or evacuating people when it is about to impact, minimizing its effects.

"A planet with a diameter greater than 1,000 kilometers impacting Earth would cause catastrophic damage, and if the diameter is around 10 kilometers, it could lead to species extinction," said a scientist who wished to remain anonymous.

"However, an asteroid with a diameter of a few dozen meters could devastate an area of several thousand square kilometers, equivalent to a large city, if it impacts Earth without any preventive measures," he said.

"Given that we have already discovered an asteroid with a diameter of around 50 meters, we will undoubtedly develop a response plan, meaning the public need not worry excessively," Zhao said.

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) have been operating since 2013, monitoring and issuing warnings for asteroids that pose a potential impact risk.

For asteroids with a diameter greater than 10 meters and an impact probability of more than 1 percent, the IAWN will issue a warning, calling on astronomers worldwide to observe, Zhao said.

"If the asteroid has a diameter greater than 20 meters and a 10 percent probability of impact within the next 20 years, the SMPAG will activate a response mechanism. This involves accurately assessing the impact risk corridor for Earth and preparing civil defense measures such as personnel evacuation," Zhao said.

"If the asteroid's diameter exceeds 50 meters and there is a 1 percent probability of impact within 50 years, active defense plans, such as launching spacecraft to alter its orbit, may be initiated," he added.

At a scientific conference held in Beijing in 2018, Chinese scientists discussed the forefront science and key technologies related to asteroid monitoring and early warning, safety defense, and resource utilization.

"If we need to defend against an asteroid with a diameter of around 50 meters, we might need to start deploying measures 3 to 4 years in advance," the anonymous scientist said.

Chinese scientists have achieved notable progress in the detection and monitoring of near-Earth asteroids. In particular, the Near-Earth Object Telescope at the Purple Mountain Observatory and the Wide Field Survey Telescope, a collaboration between the University of Science and Technology of China and the Purple Mountain Observatory, have delivered significant results in recent years. To date, China has discovered over 60 near-Earth asteroids.

"This also reflects China's active commitment to fulfilling its responsibilities as a major nation in the field of asteroid monitoring, early warning, and defense," said Zhao.

Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产成人不卡亚洲精品91 | 孩交啪啪网址 | 欧美一级二级三级视频 | 成人在线一区二区三区 | 交视频在线观看国产网站 | 久久国产免费观看精品1 | 国产精品免费久久 | 亚洲人成亚洲人成在线观看 | 手机在线国产精品 | 亚洲免费在线看 | 久久最新视频 | 欧美一区二区在线观看免费网站 | 久草国产视频 | 成人黄色一级毛片 | 特黄的欧美毛片 | 国产专区中文字幕 | 国产精品九九久久一区hh | 最新国产三级在线观看不卡 | 一级毛片一片毛 | 久久精品国产精品亚洲综合 | 国产欧美自拍 | 亚洲成人在线视频播放 | 国产a级特黄的片子视频 | 国产伦久视频免费观看 视频 | 一级爱做片免费观看久久 | 日本欧美一区二区三区在线 | 日韩亚洲人成网站在线播放 | 国产成人毛片 | 国产美女做爰免费视频软件 | 国产系列在线播放 | 欧美一区二区三区日韩免费播 | 日本欧美大片 | 成人永久免费视频 | 香蕉久久高清国产精品免费 | 欧美成人一级视频 | 日韩免费一级a毛片在线播放一级 | 亚洲欧美一区二区三区孕妇 | 国产成人精品一区二三区在线观看 | 欧美精品午夜毛片免费看 | 国产综合久久 | 国产成人免费午夜性视频 |