www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Business
Home / Business / View

Fundamental reforms needed

By Louis Kuijs | China Daily | Updated: 2013-02-27 07:19

With the government preparing its work reports for the National People's Congress next week, what are the biggest macroeconomic and structural reform challenges China faces in the year ahead?

On the macroeconomic front, China has entered 2013 with solid growth momentum, in no small part because of the policy stimulus of last year, but now, three challenges call for containing the expansion of financial leverage.

First, inflation is on the rise, largely on the back of higher food prices. This time the food price cycle may not be as pronounced as previous ones, since the global raw commodity price setting is more benign and prices of manufactured goods face only modest upward pressure. Nonetheless, policymakers are right to be sensitive to higher inflation.

Second, reining in house prices remains a key objective of the government. Following renewed enthusiasm for housing since mid-2012, the State Council reaffirmed its tight policy stance toward real estate this month. However, prices are likely to continue to increase, given the underlying pressure from urbanization and rising incomes, as well as from easy financial conditions and the absence of material taxation of housing.

Third, in the last 12 months we have seen another rapid expansion in shadow banking, the less supervised and less regulated part of the financial system that includes wealth management products channeled to lending by "non-bank" entities. One concern is that the shadow banking system tends to lend more to higher risk firms and local government vehicles that have difficulty getting access to normal bank lending. In addition to concerns about supervision and risk management, non-bank financing is now expanding so rapidly that overall leverage is rising at an unsustainable pace. Macroeconomic and financial stability call for a slower expansion of financial leverage and more comprehensive supervision.

Turning to structural issues, China has so far done well in sustaining rapid growth, fueled by the large-scale capital deepening, which contributed just over 5 percentage points to GDP growth between 1995 and 2012, and rapid pure productivity growth, which contributed about 3 percentage points. The good productivity performance was in no small part because of a sequence of structural reforms that unleashed productivity increases and reallocated labor and capital.

Going forward, the positive growth trend faces some headwinds. Labor accumulation is declining because of demographics. In addition, even though China needs more capital accumulation, with lower employment growth the pace of capital accumulation will need to come down to ensure acceptable rates of return. Meanwhile, productivity growth is under pressure from lower productivity gains in export-oriented manufacturing.

Thus, China needs further structural reforms to sustain productivity growth and get more growth out of the domestic economy. One important reform area will be channeling resources to new and growing sectors, products and services. There has been gradual progress on the pricing of industrial inputs and on financial sector reforms that raise the role of the interest rates and increase competition and access. Key outstanding challenges are setting a level playing field for State-owned enterprises and other companies, removing entry barriers to several service sectors, separating regulators from regulated entities, delineating more clearly the roles of the State and the market, increasing State-owned enterprises' dividends and channeling them into the overall fiscal envelope.

A second area of reform will be to foster more balanced urbanization, with migrants being able to take their families with them and live and consume in cities like urban residents, in order to foster more service-oriented and consumption based growth.

Crucial outstanding reforms include liberalizing the hukou, the household registration system, reforming intergovernmental fiscal relations and the performance evaluation system of government officials so local governments have the means and incentives to fund public services and build affordable housing for migrants, and pursuing rural land reform to increase the mobility of migrants from rural areas, facilitate land consolidation and mechanization, and boost rural residents' per capita incomes.

Looking ahead, the outstanding reforms needed are complicated and difficult, with vested interests seeming to hold up progress in leveling the playing field, clearly delineating the roles of the State and the market, charging significant dividends from SOEs, reforming inter-governmental fiscal relations and rural land reform. However, trying to sustain growth without tackling these fundamental issues would leave China with an unbalanced economic and social structure, so they will have to be done.

The timing matters; the sooner reforms are implemented to adjust the allocation of resources; the sooner the old, inefficient allocation patterns will end. Also, the longer it takes to implement institutional reforms to more sharply delineate the roles of the State and the market the harder it may become.

The author is an economist with The Royal Bank of Scotland.

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
主站蜘蛛池模板: 亚洲欧美日韩综合在线一区二区三区 | 99国产精品热久久久久久夜夜嗨 | 看欧美毛片一级毛片 | 2022国产91精品久久久久久 | 99久久免费视频在线观看 | 国产日本精品 | 欧美xxxxxxxx| 国产午夜爽爽窝窝在线观看 | 国产成年人网站 | aaaaaaa一级毛片 | 久久在线免费视频 | 成人毛片18女人毛片免费 | 欧美高清性色生活 | 一区二区三区四区在线 | 日韩三级小视频 | 高清欧美性狂猛bbbbbbxxxx | 国产亚洲人成网站在线观看不卡 | 精品国产一区二区三区成人 | 男人的天堂高清在线观看 | 男女福利视频 | 美女拍拍拍爽爽爽爽爽爽 | 三级毛片三级毛片 | 日韩一区二区三区视频在线观看 | 日日摸人人看97人人澡 | 91精品国产美女福到在线不卡 | 国产精品久久精品 | 91亚洲在线 | 亚洲毛片免费看 | 亚洲欧美一区二区三区久久 | 久久毛片视频 | 成人国产在线24小时播放视频 | 国产成人综合日韩精品婷婷九月 | 狠色狠狠色狠狠狠色综合久久 | 国产成人欧美一区二区三区的 | 可以免费看黄的网址 | 国产成人精品午夜免费 | 国产乱子伦露脸对白在线小说 | 欧洲成人免费高清视频 | 国产成人久久综合二区 | 成年性午夜免费视频网站不卡 | 欧美日韩国产免费一区二区三区 |