www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / View

Economic data move toward new normal

By Louis Kuijs (China Daily) Updated: 2015-01-22 07:35

The economic data of Jan 20 showed that, on a quarterly basis, the slowdown of China's economy was interrupted in the fourth quarter of 2014. However, for the year as a whole, GDP growth slowed from 7.7 percent in 2013 to 7.4 percent last year, slightly below the official target of 7.5 percent, the first time this has happened since 1990.

The economic slowdown was especially visible in industry, particularly heavy industry, which was jolted by the real estate downturn and where the impact of the slowdown on corporate activity and profits is amplified by falling output prices.

Activity and price developments in light industry and the service sector were more favorable. Indeed, we (at Royal Bank of Scotland) saw further rebalancing of the pattern of growth in 2014. As the share of the secondary (industrial) sector fell 1.3 percentage points to 42.6 percent of GDP, the service sector's share increased 2.1 percentage points to 48.2 percent, even though the rebalancing on this dimension was less rapid in real terms.

The relatively favorable growth of the comparatively labor-intensive service sector supported the labor market. With real service sector GDP growth edging down from 8.3 percent in 2013 to 8.1 percent last year, new urban job creation - the government's preferred labor-market indicator - was 10.7 million, exceeding the target of 10 million. Migrant employment growth - a good indicator on the vibrancy of the urban labor market - picked up slightly in the fourth quarter of last year, after an earlier slowdown.

The relatively good labor market performance through 2014 was an important reason why China's leadership remained relatively restrained with regard to macroeconomic stimulus and a reason the leadership thought it acceptable for growth to slightly miss the growth target in 2014.

Inflation faces downward pressure because of falling prices of raw commodities on global markets and overcapacity in China's industry, although the likelihood of a pernicious deflationary spiral is not high.

Economic growth is likely to remain under downward pressure in the first half of 2015, affected by continued real estate weakness. In spite of measures to stimulate housing sales taken in the second half of last year, a real estate recovery is not likely any time soon. Although low raw commodity prices should support margins in industry, corporate investment momentum will probably not improve much either in 2015, given the weak demand prospects and overcapacity in several sectors.

Other growth drivers remain broadly intact, though. Infrastructure investment should continue to be supported by policymakers' reliance on such investments to support growth, although the implementation of the new local government debt framework does pose downside risks. Consumption should continue to benefit from a solid labor market and low inflation, while the outlook for exports is reasonable.

Key risks to the outlook include a more pronounced global monetary and exchange rate upheaval, weaker global trade growth and, in China itself, a more pronounced downturn in real estate, lower infrastructure investment following the implementation of the local government debt framework, and jitters in financial markets on the back of credit events.

Policy support will be needed to achieve GDP growth of close to 7 percent in 2015 - the likely growth target for this year - but policymakers will remain reluctant to move toward major, high-profile stimulus measures in line with their emphasis on "the new normal", instead of stimulus. On the fiscal front, while infrastructure investment will remain a focus this year, there is no major stimulus in the pipeline.

On the monetary front, calls for policy to support growth and contain borrowing costs will be balanced with the need to rein in the rise in leverage and financial risks. The People's Bank of China has largely continued to implement "targeted" monetary policy measures instead of high-profile measures such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) or further interest rate cuts. Earlier this week, the PBoC increased relending to financial institutions that serve agriculture and small companies. Another factor holding back an RRR cut has been large inflows into the equity market in recent months, in part fuelled by margin trading, although measures announced last Friday by the China Banking Regulatory Commission and China Securities Regulatory Commission to rein that in seem to have had a major dampening impact on the stock market and may make an eventual RRR cut more likely.

The author is chief China economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 日本亚洲欧美国产日韩ay高清 | 中文字幕一二三四区2021 | 国产一级大片免费看 | 久久综合精品不卡一区二区 | 欧美特黄aaaaaaaa大片 | 国产欧美视频在线观看 | 九九全国免费视频 | 国产成人精品免费视频软件 | 香蕉97碰碰视频免费 | 中文字幕日韩一区二区不卡 | 国产成人精品午夜免费 | 九九精品99久久久香蕉 | 欧美一级艳片视频免费观看 | 久操免费在线视频 | 女人被男人躁得好爽免费视频免费 | 狼人激情网 | 精品伊人久久久久网站 | 国产精品久久在线 | 日韩亚洲人成网站在线播放 | 国产在线视频自拍 | 欧美一级一极性活片免费观看 | 思思91精品国产综合在线 | 亚洲免费视频一区 | avtt天堂网 手机资源 | 亚洲欧美国产一区二区三区 | 欧美一级免费在线观看 | 娇喘嗯嗯~轻点啊视频福利 | 欧美视频一区二区 | 欧美三级网站在线观看 | 午夜性色福利视频在线视频 | 亚洲a网| 国产一级毛片一区二区三区 | 亚洲久久视频 | 日韩字幕 | 真实偷清晰对白在线视频 | 亚洲欧美久久精品一区 | 国产亚洲91 | 午夜a一级毛片一.成 | 香蕉视频黄色在线观看 | 国产乱子伦视频大全 | 日韩成人一级 |