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China investment surge boosts recovery hopes

(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-06-11 14:14

However, she also noted that trade flows today reflect orders placed several months ago, when the global economy was in dire straits. Investment, by contrast, is a better leading indicator.

Japan's economy contracted a revised 3.8 percent in the first three months of the year, better than economists' median forecast of 4.0 percent, which was the same as the initial estimate, but still the fastest pace since WWII.

Economists are forecasting a gradual return to growth, although weak capital spending and personal consumption are expected to be a drag on the economy in the coming months.

"Our economic assessment remains the same for the first quarter, this was the period when the economy collapsed," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

"For the second quarter and beyond, we have bottomed out and are gradually picking up, led by exports, public investment and consumption."

Positive Development

In Australia, the currency climbed while bonds slid after data showed only a net 1,700 jobs were lost last month, compared with an expected drop of 30,000.

That followed a rise of 25,400 in April and left employment down just 9,400 so far this year. The United States has shed 2.9 million jobs in the same period.

"Another very good result and a very positive development," said Michael Blythe, chief economist at Commonwealth Bank, adding that the rosier outlook meant the central bank was likely to leave interest rates untouched at a record low 3 percent for now.

In the United States, the federal budget deficit logged a bigger-than-expected $189.7 billion in May, the US Treasury reported on Wednesday. The nation's trade gap also widened to $29.2 billion in April, another report showed.

The yawning deficits renewed investors' fears that massive government spending will lead to dangerous inflation and undercut any fledgling rebound.

A government bond auction pushed yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note above 4.0 percent for the first time in eight months, suggesting investors want the government to pay a premium to finance its huge deficit.

"It's hard to envisage that the Fed will raise interest rates anytime soon given the economic fundamentals, but on the other hand there are supply concerns in the US," said a foreign exchange dealer at a Japanese bank.

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