www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

  Full Coverages>World>US Election>News
   
 

Experts see high turnout in presidential vote
(Agencies)
Updated: 2004-10-21 15:07

Unprecedented get-out-the-vote efforts by Democrats, Republicans and a host of partisan and non-partisan groups will likely drive turnout in the Nov. 2 presidential election significantly higher than in 2000, political analysts said on Wednesday.

The two parties and various interest groups will spend hundreds of millions of dollars more this year than in 2000, according to Donald Green, a political scientist at Yale University and co-author on a book about turnout.

"We calculate a rough return of one extra vote for every $50 spent on mobilization efforts so an extra $200 million in the system, which may be a reasonable estimate, might produce 4 million new votes," he said.

The exact amount being spent on such efforts is impossible to know because many of the groups doing the spending are not required to disclose the source of their funds. But the anecdotal evidence is impossible to ignore.

"A large number of organizations are putting in money and efforts in a way unlike any mobilization we have seen in the past. We are definitely on track for higher turnout," said Ken Stroupe of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Around 51 percent of the voting age electorate turned out in the 2000 election, 2 percentage points higher than in 1996 but 4 points lower than the 1992 election.

The conventional wisdom is that higher turnout generally helps Democratic candidates because it draws in voters who are younger and less educated -- constituencies that generally favor Democrats. However, that may not happen this year.

"Generalizations cannot be applied this time. Neither party is going about this in a random manner. They are both targeting their efforts. It's a question of which side can bring a larger army to the battlefield," said Green.

Studies have shown that turnout increases with age and education, that married people are much more likely to vote than singles and that married people with children vote in higher proportions than those without.

Both parties have developed sophisticated databases, each with the names of more than 150 million voters and information such as whether a person is married, owns a home and has children; his or her party identification and which past elections a person has voted in.

Democratic national field director Karen Hicks said the party had trained 40,000 volunteers and had already knocked on 6 million doors and made 18 million phone calls asking voters to support John Kerry.

Republican National Committee spokeswoman Christine Iverson said her party was planning the largest vote mobilization effort in its history.

"We have one million team leaders in every state lined up to turn out their friends, neighbors and relatives. We've learned that's one of the most effective ways to reach out to voters," she said.

Studies confirm the most effective way to increase voter turnout is to have someone visit them in person.

Leaflets and direct mail had a much smaller effect in persuading them to vote and telephone calls were only effective if the caller spent some time and developed a rapport with the respondent.

America Coming Together, an independent group working for Kerry, logged 60,000 hours of door-to-door canvassing last week and planned to spend $10 million getting out the vote out on Election Day alone. The group says it plans to have 45,000 canvassers out on Nov. 2, and it will be paying them $75 each.

Kerry supporters have registered millions of new voters, especially black Americans, while the Bush campaign has targeted churches as a source of new support.

Democrats may have an advantage turning out genuinely new voters because fewer of their natural supporters vote, said Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg.

"Republicans generally have been more reliable voters but this year all the reports suggest the Democratic Party and its allies have a distinct advantage," she said.

 
  Story Tools  
   
 
     
主站蜘蛛池模板: 日本特黄特色视频 | 成年午夜性爽快免费视频不卡 | 男女午夜性爽快免费视频不卡 | www.久久久 | 亚洲一区二区三区视频 | 韩国特级毛片 | 加勒比日本道 | 欧美国产亚洲一区 | 欧美全免费aaaaaa特黄在线 | 欧美第五页 | 精品一久久香蕉国产线看播放 | 两性色午夜视频免费国产 | 日韩一区二区三区精品 | 国产区一区二区三 | 国产91第一页| 全午夜免费一级毛片 | 国产亚洲综合在线 | 寡妇野外啪啪一区二区 | 日本草草影院 | 亚洲一区区 | 国产 一二三四五六 | 亚洲人成综合网站在线 | 九九精品在线观看 | 天堂素人搭讪系列嫩模在线观看 | 99久久精品免费精品国产 | 日韩一区精品 | 国产一级一级一级成人毛片 | 成年人免费在线视频 | 久久久久99精品成人片三人毛片 | 亚洲一区二区三区高清视频 | 亚洲成人777 | 好湿好紧好痛a级是免费视频 | 美女曰皮| 91情侣高清精品国产 | 最新国产区 | 天堂8在线天堂资源bt | 久久福利青草免费精品 | 久色视频在线 | 视频亚洲一区 | 国产精品久久久久久免费 | 久久免费高清视频 |