NT$ rises as fears for 'hot money' ban ease
Updated: 2009-11-12 08:34
(HK Edition)
|
|||||||||
TAIPEI: Taiwan's dollar advanced for a sixth day on speculation a ban on foreign investors placing Taiwan dollar-denominated funds in time-deposits won't deter investors from increasing holdings of the island's stocks and bonds.
Central bank Deputy Governor George Chou said Tuesday the measure will "make sure" overseas investors revert to placing their money in Taiwan's capital markets. Policy makers are determined to keep "hot money" away from the currency, said Chuang Rehong, an economist at SinoPac Securities Corp in Taipei.
"The effect (of the ban) is negligible in the near-term," said Wai Ho Leong, a regional economist in Singapore at Barclays Plc. "There won't be an impact on equities, so there won't be much effect on the Taiwan dollar as well. Given the positive outlook for equities, we could even see some diversion of idle foreign institutional investor cash balances into the equity market."
The local dollar gained 0.1 percent, rising to NT$32.310 versus the US currency at the 4 pm close, after earlier slipping as much as 0.2 percent, according to Taipei Forex Inc. The Taiwan dollar has traded within a range of NT$33 per dollar and NT$32 for the past four months. The currency will appreciate 7 percent against the greenback by the end of 2010, according to the median of 13 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.
Its 1.6 percent advance this year compares with a 36 percent increase for the Brazilian real and a 34 percent climb for the Australian dollar. Only the yen, with a 0.4 percent gain, has risen less among the 16 most-active currencies.
Central bank Governor Perng Fai-nan on October 14 said foreign investors have about NT$500 billion ($15.5 billion) in Taiwan dollar accounts, five times more than he considers acceptable.
Overseas investors bought NT$10.9 billion more Taiwan shares than they sold yesterday, bringing net purchases this year to $11.8 billion and helping lift the Taiex stock index 67 percent.
"Some investors may interpret that as a positive signal for the stock market, because if the inflows can't be parked in time deposits, some may be transferred into the stock market," said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd in Singapore.
Five-year bonds advanced, driving the yield to the lowest level in three weeks, on speculation investors were shifting funds to fixed-income securities from time deposits.
"This kind of money will buy government bonds, so five years and shorter-term government bonds will benefit," said Eric Hsing, a fixed-income securities trader at First Securities Inc. in Taipei, adding "yields will go down."
The yield on the 2 percent note due July 2014 fell one basis point to 0.887 percent in Taipei, according to Gretai Securities Market, Taiwan's biggest exchange for bonds.
Bloomberg News
(HK Edition 11/12/2009 page2)