High 2008 base sinks Oct export data
Updated: 2009-11-27 07:34
(HK Edition)
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HONG KONG: Hong Kong's exports fell for a 12th straight month in October, hampering the city's recovery from a year-long recession.
Overseas shipments declined 13.1 percent from a year earlier to HK$240.8 billion ($31 billion), the government announced yesterday, on the heels of an export slide of 8.6 percent in September.
The latest figure was in line with the median forecast of nine economists in a Bloomberg News survey for a 13 percent decline.
Japan, Taiwan and Singapore reported improvements in their latest export figures and Australia posted the biggest month-on-month increase in almost a year, as worldwide government spending boosted demand.
Hong Kong's exports rose to a record value in October last year, before the financial crisis savaged demand, creating a high base for comparison.
"Recent economic reports indicate a stabilization in global demand," said Joanne Yim, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank. "Hong Kong's exports are likely to resume growth in November," she said, blaming the "high base effect" for the latest decline.
Imports fell 10.7 percent in October from a year earlier, leaving a trade deficit of HK$19.2 billion, the smallest in four months. Hong Kong's economy expanded 0.4 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, as consumption and investment improved. The city exited a year-long recession in the second quarter.
Hong Kong's exports have tumbled since November last year, including a 23 percent plunge in February that was the biggest drop in half a century. In October, shipments to the mainland fell 8.9 percent and those to the US declined 23.4 percent.
The government said the worse overall performance and the high base in the same month last year were due to the fact that many traders reportedly advanced their shipments for fear of subsequent cancellation of orders at the onset of the financial tsunami.
Seasonally adjusted, exports have improved modestly in recent months. The value of October exports was the highest in a year.
The city's exports will "show an obvious improvement in coming months and may return to positive growth as soon as November," said Cheng Cheng-mount, a Taipei-based economist at Citigroup Inc's Taiwan unit, citing demand from the mainland and the economic recovery in the US.
China Daily/ Bloomberg News
(HK Edition 11/27/2009 page3)