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The odds of a "white Christmas" in temperate parts of the northern hemisphere have diminished in the last century due to climate change and will likely decline further by 2100, climate and meteorology experts said.
Even though heavy snow this year will guarantee a white Christmas in many parts of Asia, Europe and North America, an 0.7-degree C rise in world temperatures since 1900 and projected bigger rises by 2100 suggest an inexorable trend.
"The probability of snow on the ground at Christmas is already lower than it was even 50 years ago but it will become an even greater rarity many places by the latter half of the century," said Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarber, climate researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
In the northern German city of Berlin, for instance, the chances of snow on the ground on Dec 24, 25 and 26 have fallen from 20 percent a century ago to approximately 15 percent in 2008, he said. By 2100 the odds will be less than 5 percent.
Berlin last had snow on the ground at Christmas in 2001, and even though the German capital is due a festive snowfall, from a statistical point of view, meteorologists say it will not be white in 2008 either.
In cities with more maritime climates, such as London, and mild continental climates like Paris, snow on Christmas is even now fairly rare and will only be a freak occurrence within 100 years, he said. No snow is expected in either city this year.
"The yearning for snow at Christmas seems to grow stronger the rarer it becomes," Gerstengarber said, noting cities at low altitudes such as Berlin (30 m above sea level) will probably almost never see snow surviving on the ground by 2100.
Betting on the fabled "white Christmas" is a pastime in some countries, like Britain, and oddsmakers will increasingly have to factor in global warming's impact, climate researchers said.
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(Agencies)
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氣候和氣象專(zhuān)家日前稱(chēng)，受氣候變化的影響，北半球溫帶地區(qū)的人們過(guò)“白色圣誕”的機(jī)會(huì)在過(guò)去一個(gè)世紀(jì)中越來(lái)越少，而且這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)在2100年之前會(huì)進(jìn)一步減少。
托下大雪的福，今年亞洲、歐洲和北美洲很多地區(qū)的人們能過(guò)一個(gè)“白色圣誕”了，但現(xiàn)實(shí)的狀況是，全球平均氣溫自1900年以來(lái)上升了0.7攝氏度，并將于2100年前出現(xiàn)更大幅度的上升，這一事實(shí)預(yù)示了一個(gè)可怕的趨勢(shì)。
德國(guó)波茨坦氣候影響研究所的氣候研究員Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarber說(shuō)：“與50年前相比，踩著厚厚的積雪過(guò)圣誕的機(jī)會(huì)已經(jīng)少了很多，到本世紀(jì)下半葉，這樣的圣誕節(jié)就更稀罕了。”
他舉了個(gè)例子說(shuō)，在德國(guó)北部城市柏林，一年之中12月24日至26日這幾天的降雪概率已由一百年前的20%下降到了今年的15%左右。到了2100年，這一概率將不到5%。
柏林上一次的“白色圣誕”出現(xiàn)在2001年。盡管從統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)角度看，今年圣誕節(jié)柏林該下一場(chǎng)雪了，但氣象學(xué)家稱(chēng)，今年還是別做指望了。
Gerstengarber說(shuō)，在更具海洋性氣候特征及溫帶大陸性氣候特征的城市，如倫敦和巴黎，如今圣誕降雪更加罕見(jiàn)，并將成為百年一遇的奇觀。據(jù)氣象預(yù)報(bào)，今年圣誕倫敦和巴黎也不會(huì)下雪。
他說(shuō)：“圣誕節(jié)下雪越稀罕，人們就越渴望。”據(jù)他介紹，像柏林（海拔30米）這種海拔較低的城市到了2100年可能基本看不到地面積雪了。
氣候研究人員稱(chēng)，在英國(guó)等一些國(guó)家，打賭是否會(huì)出現(xiàn)傳說(shuō)中的“白色圣誕”是人們生活中的一大樂(lè)趣。博彩公司以后也要越來(lái)越重視全球變暖的影響了。
（實(shí)習(xí)生許雅寧 英語(yǔ)點(diǎn)津姍姍編輯）
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